MockOut’s 2017 NFL Mock Draft: Live Post-Combine Mock Draft Results
It’s been five long weeks since I’ve released a mock draft! Five. For an NFL draft site (or even a lone mock draft expert) to not offer a mock draft for over a month might seem like heresy, but believe! We had a plan.
You see, if I had published a mock draft between now and the previous one, our users would have had a much clearer view of where my head was at, and this mock draft contest would have been a lot less fun. This method of revealing my mock draft only after the combine, after the start of free agency, after everything had changed, was necessary. It was necessary to try and replicate the drama that will come with entering your mock draft into contests built around the actual NFL draft results next month.
So before you do anything else, download the app and join a free contest. The winner gets $50.
So here we are.
Because the draft order was set with the Colts picking 14 and the Eagles picking 15, I am going to push the draft results out to the app using that old order. But on my official mock draft here it will be accurate, with Philly picking at 14. The Patriots and Saints also pulled off a blockbuster deal, but that one is less important because, spoiler alert, someone new acquires that pick in my official mock draft.
Because this is a LIVE mock draft, I will be publishing one pick every ten minutes, with an update on how the mock draft contest entrants are faring. To see how this might make for some real-world drama, check out the ending to our first mock draft contest.
Go to the app to track your live score, and while you’re there, go ahead and join our other live mock draft contest, which closes Wednesday night at 8pm EST.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
1. Myles Garrett, DE Texas A&M
Whelp. The combine only confirmed what everyone everywhere already knew. Myles Garrett is the definition of a generational talent. I know that word gets thrown around a lot, but literally no football player ever has tested out as explosively as Garrett. Not J.J. Watt or Reggie Bush or Jadeveon Clowney or anyone at any position. He will be the top pick, he will be a Cleveland Brown, and he will be a force for years to come, on a Browns team that is reloading talent the right way, and fast.
As expected, most people had Garrett pegged to go number 1 overall. Let’s all make a concerted effort to get that number up to 100% before the next contest, shall we?
2. via Leonard Fournette, RB LSU
Well it didn’t take long for our first trade of the mock draft contest! And it is a logical one for both parties. The 49ers have five thousand needs all over their roster, and without a sure-fire QB to take here, it is best for them to stockpile picks to start rebuilding. The Panthers are just one year removed from a Super Bowl appearance, and have a pretty stocked roster with one glaring hole. One glaring hole that matches perfectly with the talent available. Fournette was a man among boys in college, and will be electric in the pros, taking a huge amount of pressure off Cam.
Well I did not see that coming! Two participants (Reeuban and Kodathor) perfectly predicted that Carolina would trade up to pick 2 and grab Fournette. A few others predicted that pairing as well, but those two now have a commanding lead, after knocking that pick out of the park with the Trade Bonus.
3. Solomon Thomas, DE Stanford
As much as I think the Bears would like to try and move back, this isn’t a great spot for them to do so. Solomon Thomas single-handedly destroyed UNC in last year’s bowl game, then showed up to the combine and proved his explosiveness was no mirage. He is a terror, inside and out, and he doesn’t stop. He’s what it would be like if the Terminator were fast and played D-line. They might hear the “r” word (reach) thrown around a bit in their post-draft grade, but in week 1 of the 2017 NFL season, everyone will take it back.
Neither of the top two on the leaderboard correctly guessed Solomon here, but Foss345 nailed the pick, gaining ground.
4. O.J. Howard, TE Alabama
Last year the Giants went against popular wisdom to build their defense up through free agency, and were rewarded for it. The Jaguars emulated that strategy this offseason, addressing all their major defensive needs on day 1 of free agency, freeing them to take a playmaker that will transform their offense in the draft. There’s a good chance they will be disappointed when Fournette is drafted ahead of them, but for their consolation prize to be the best TE prospect to come into the draft at least since Vernon Davis, possibly ever, is still reason to celebrate.
Huh. Seems nobody has put the pieces together yet, pairing Howard with the Jags. The leaderboard remains the same, with Reeuban and Kodathor in the lead with 44 points.
5. via Jamal Adams, S LSU
If this mock draft had been released before the start of free agency, you would have all called me mad for predicting the Titans would allow another team to trade up and select Jamal Adams. But there they go, bringing in a highly-drafted strong safety in free agency, allowing them the positional flexibility to trade back and acquire more picks. The Chargers though- they needed that strong safety, and could not count on such a talented player falling past the Jets pick at 6. It wouldn’t cost them too much to move up two spots and get the guy they needed to have.
We have another (mostly) correct trade prediction, with Sminch21 predicting the Chargers would trade up to pick 4 to grab Jamal Adams. It hasn’t vaulted him into first place yet, but with 40 points, he is only 5 points behind the leads.
6. via Malik Hooker, S Ohio State
The Jets would be pissed about seeing Jamal Adams snatched out from under their noses, but they were too busy negotiating their own acquisition of draft capital, this time at the expense of those hard-luck Browns. But just how hard-luck can you be when you add the most explosive defensive player the NFL has ever seen, and the best free safety prospect to enter the draft since Earl Thomas, in the first hour of the draft. I imagine the price will be pretty steep to move up this far, but if any team can afford to give up multiple second and third round picks, it’s the Browns. They will be called the winners of day 1.
A separate Reeuban mock got the Cleveland trade up to 6 to select Hooker pick, right on the nose! Confirming the importance of entering multiple mocks into a contest, as Reeuban now is in first, second, and third place. But will it hold?
7. via John Ross, WR Washington
I’m ready for the boos! I’ve handled them this entire offseason, sending John Ross to the Eagles, and I’m ready for them now that he broke the NFL record for fastest 40 yard dash. Do I think he is the best receiver in this class? No. But I think he is pretty close. And I also think his style of play compliments what this offense wants to achieve, which is pound it, pound it, pound it, then once the safeties are forced to cheat up against the run, heave the ball up to the fastest player in the NFL. He’s injury prone, but nobody can lift the lid off a defense like John Ross.
I didn’t think many players would predict this pairing, and so it was that not many did. Jed_keel did get the Titans-Ross pairing, but later in the draft. Still tight at the top!
8. via Reuben Foster, ILB Alabama
How happy I hope I’ve made San Francisco fans. Rather than pissing them off by taking Reuben Foster, who I think is a perfect fit for this team, at pick 2, I trade back 6 spots and still land the same devastating defensive leader. He steps in as the quarterback- the identity- of this defense on day 1. Sure, they still need to give their offense a quarterback, but none of the prospects are good enough to justify passing on Foster, who I predict will fall down many mock drafts due to his outburst at the combine, but will still easily be a top-10 pick in the official NFL draft.
Considering how willing I was to mock Foster to San Fran in earlier iterations of my mock, it shouldn’t have surprised me. And yet, when Reeuban correctly predicted that the Panthers would trade up to take Fournette at 2, then nailed that San Francisco would take Foster at 8, my jaw dropped. It will take some major correct picks for anyone to come back from this amazing display of prognostication!
9. Haason Reddick, OLB Temple
Poor Bengals. They were certain the 49ers would mess up and draft a QB, leaving Foster to fall into their waiting arms. Instead, they take an even more explosive player, but one who isn’t as proven at a college powerhouse. One scout claimed that he believes Reddick is the best player in this draft. While I wouldn’t go that far, I would agree with him that Reddick is a special talent, and will be drafted in the top-10. I think right now you will be hard pressed to find too much love for this pick, but once we get closer to draft day, I think this will be a common pairing in many mock drafts.
And now we are back to reality, with no one predicting Reddick’s meteoric rise into the top-10. The leaderboard stays the same for now.
10. Corey Davis, WR Western Michigan
Sometimes the most important thing to do in the draft is just not overthink it. Just don’t mess it up. Here, the Bills have a gaping hole at WR, and the top WR in this draft class is on the board, just waiting for them to call his name. With Tyrod Taylor back in the fold, and if Watkins can stay healthy, the Bills offense might be one of the most surprising stories of 2017. Shady is already happy that they’ve added 2 fantastic blocking FBs, and now with two receivers to keep defenders off the line, it’s pick your poison in Buffalo.
Foss345 nails another non-traded pick, moving into third place as a result. Slow and steady, as they say…
11. Taco Charlton, DE Michigan
This is a tough spot for me, because I want to send the Saints a cornerback here, but with how deep this CB class is and a pair of injuries to both of the top-rated cornerbacks on most boards, I give the Saints the defensive end they so sorely need. Now I have to admit, I’m not nearly so high on Charlton as most people are. In fact, I think he will be a total bust. But I am in the minority. Teams are drooling over his upside. And what my mock drafts do (and any mock draft entered into a mock draft contest should do) is to predict what teams will do. Not what they should. And I recognize what’s happening with Taco. The dude’s stock is soaring.
Everyone thinks the Saints go defense in round one, but most people predicted either Barnett or a CB. I think post-combine hype is sending Barnett in one direction, and Charlton in another.
12. via Mitch Trubisky, QB UNC
This will hopefully keep Jets fans off my back for a little while. There’s a good chance my mock gets criticized for having the QBs go too late. That it’s not realistic. Well, this is a special year for defensive talent, and I think a lot of GMs will be really hard pressed to justify taking a flawed QB prospect over any of the previously drafted defensive stars-in-the-making. Except Charlton. I still say that guy busts. But here we are. The Jets take the first QB off the board, Mitchell gets to see the big city, and there is hope in Jetsville once more. Now, who’s he gonna throw to…?
BIG move up for Toogoodlynch, who predicted the Jets would trade for Trubisky. Now currently tied with Foss345 for second place, they still have a lot of ground to cover to reach first.
13. Patrick Mahomes, QB Texas Tech
This one is just too easy. The QB with the biggest arm in the draft falls to Bruce Arians and his vertical offensive approach? Oh, and he is a little raw, so he should sit a year behind an established veteran on the back end of his career? Check. What’s that? You don’t have any major needs that go unaddressed here? Fantastic. The Cardinals probably feel like they won’t be picking this high again for a long time, and for a raw QB dripping with potential to be here for them is too good for them to pass up. This is another one that we will see more and more as the draft nears.
There was a lot of Mike Williams love for this pick, but not from my mock. No major changes in the leaderboard after this one.
14. Marshon Lattimore, CB Ohio State
The slide ends. A CB is finally drafted. This should open the proverbial floodgates at the position. Lattimore is seen as the most gifted CB in this class, but he is also injury prone. And those soft tissue injuries like he gets- those repeat themselves. They linger. So I would be nervous about drafting Lattimore as the first CB off the board. But the devastating injury to Sidney Jones makes the gap between him and the second best corner a little wider. The Eagles have a desperate need at the position, so they take the best guy available and hope their training staff is up to the job of keeping his hammy loose.
Sminch21 pulls into second all on his own, by having the guts to allow Lattimore to fall to Philly. Well played!
15. T.J. Watt, OLB Wisconsin
I actually think Watt could go even higher than this, and I wouldn’t consider it a reach at all. There is nothing not to like about this guy. I think people are nervous to mock him high because he will never live up to his brother, but I’m actually not so sure about that. As gifted as J.J. is for his body type and position, T.J. is not far behind in his own way. The length and massive hand size he has, to go with his incredible burst, instincts, and passion for the game make him a prospect with an incredible floor and an incredible ceiling. You know that position will be fine for you, for years. And that he plays in the same division as his brother? That’s a bonus.
Pretty sure nobody had this pairing, as not many people are as high on Watt as I am now. But they will be. They will be…
16. Garett Bolles, OT Utah
What? There are offensive linemen in this draft too? Great. Baltimore, you get the first one off the board. At this point in the draft, most of the special defensive talent is already gone, but Bolles is a very alluring option for the Ravens. They just lost their starting right tackle to the Lions, and need to do something to rebuild this once-proud running game. Bolles is one of only three really physically gifted offensive linemen in the draft, and the only one who plays tackle. Yes, he is old at 25, but he is a bully and a ballerina- the kind of tackle prospect teams dream about, and if they have him for only 5 or 6 years, it’s still worth it.
Again, not much movement after this unpopular ick. It’s surprising to me that not many people have replacing Wagner as a high priority, especially considering how few later options there are in this draft class…
17. Christian McCaffrey, RB Stanford
How do you even predict what the Redskins do here? They fire their GM and call him a drunk during combine weekend! We have absolutely no information to go on, other than team needs, positional value, and total dysfunction. What they need is a franchise-savior, and I can see someone thinking McCaffrey is that guy. While some fears about his top end speed were confirmed at the combine, so was his legendary agility. You put this kid in a phone booth full of defenders, and he’ll find his way out of it. He adds explosion to a plodding RB corps, and a level of intrigue to a horribly mismanaged receiving corps.
Not much to say after this pick, other than nobody agrees on who the Skins will take here, or even on who will be making the selection for the Redskins. Consensus will be hard to come by for them this year…
18. via Zach Cunningham, ILB Vanderbilt
Oh those wily Titans, pulling another trade. Had Sidney Jones not torn his achilles, he would be going to Tennessee, but since Miami is desperate to get their LB and the CB position isn’t the huge need for Tennessee that it was a week ago, they trade down and add picks. Cunningham is a personal favorite, and I think he would be a really good get for a Dolphins team that needs a hot youth injection for its defense. They knew they would have to leapfrog the Lions to have a chance at him, and I believe the Titans would provide a willing trade partner.
A lot of players touched on this pick. Some of them paired Cunningham with the Dolphins, but others- most notably, our point leader, Reeuban- picked Cunningham to go at pick 18. Lots of action here, and it results in an extended lead.
19. via Ryan Ramczyk, OT Wisconsin
I know the Giants just picked up D.J. Fluker, but no sooner was he added than the reports came out that he is being moved to guard, which makes sense considering his struggles at tackle. Flowers isn’t doing much better, and Hart really should be playing guard. The Giants move up past the Broncos to grab Ramczyk, assuming his recovery from hip surgery goes smoothly. He is really the last solid tackle in the draft, and should go a long way toward keeping Eli’s jersey clean for the last year or two of competitive play he can offer this team.
Once again, we had a few players on each end of the Ramczyk trade- some predicting he is drafted at 19 and some predicting he would go to the Giants- but nobody close enough to first place to really close the gap yet.
20. David Njoku, TE Miami
Yeah, missing out on the top two tackles sucks for Denver, but I just don’t believe they will reach for a deeply flawed prospect like Cam Robinson over adding an exciting playmaker to the receiving corps like Njoku. His raw athleticism instantly creates mismatches for opposing defenses that are trying to contain Thomas and Sanders on the outside, and his feistiness as a blocker will help open things up for Anderson or whoever runs the ball for them. He’s not the best blocker in the world, but he brings some real grit to a Broncos offense that feels a little soft right now.
I thought this might be a popular pick, but apparently I’m the only one making mock drafts who is not locked in to the Broncos taking an O-lineman in the first round.
21. Jarrad Davis, ILB Florida
Of course the Lions hated to see the Dolphins steal Cunningham away from them, but I get the feeling they would also be happy with Davis manning the middle. He is a prospect that is really growing on me as I watch more of his tape, and who I think could really excel in the middle of the field. The Lions have invested major bucks in the offensive line, which tells me they plan on running it more next year. Which tells me they plan on not playing catch up so much, which tells me they plan on drafting defense. The Lions must be sick of doing well early, then getting beat up once the weather turns cold in the NFC North. Davis adds a mauler to a team that needs to play hard in Green Bay, in Chicago, in the cold.
It was interesting that very few people actually predicted Detroit would make a trade here- everyone pretty much agrees they will stay put and draft someone at 21. But few also thought it would be Davis. No real movement.
22. via Quincy Wilson, CB Florida
Just like I did with their first pick, I was able to trade back in the round and still land the player I wanted for this team. Despite having a relatively weak combine, I still see Wilson as the CB with the highest upside in this class. He can’t run with the fastest receivers like Lattimore can, but Lattimore doesn’t have the bulk or the physicality to dominate receivers at the line like Wilson does. I think he has much better football intelligence than he is given credit for, and that his athleticism is unparalleled at the position. His subpar combine showing is probably the best thing to happen to Tennessee.
MarChargersLA moves up the leaderboard as he correctly paired Quincy Wilson and the Titans, albeit at their original draft slot. He gains 5 on the field, but will need a lot more than that to approach first place.
23. via Derek Barnett, DE Tennessee
Another team that benefits wildly from an average combine performance is Tampa Bay. I personally think Barnett is one of the ten best players in this year’s draft class. But I know a lot of teams are wary of investing high draft picks in 4-3 defensive ends that don’t show the elite burst needed to fly around offensive tackles. Forget how good his run defense has been his entire career at Tennessee and forget the variety of ways he’s proven he can beat tackles, if he ain’t fast, he ain’t good is the mentality of many front office types. The Buccaneers steal a great player at a position of need, and add an extra pick in the process.
Toogoodlynch gets a piece of this one, pairing Barnett with Tamps, moving into second place, though still sits 20 behind Reeuban, whose massive lead is being slowly, methodically, chipped away.
24. Takkarist McKinley, DE UCLA
Here’s the weird thing about this draft… I like Takk McKinley! A lot! I think in an ordinary draft class, he would be seen as a top-15 talent. But man, there are just so many good players coming out this year, that a pretty stacked team like the Raiders make off like bandits and get a player they should never be allowed to have. Lining him up on the other side of Khalil Mack is unfair. What is the AFC West supposed to do about that? Yet here we are. The Raiders get a long, lean, explosive pass rusher to abuse tackles all day long, and don’t even have to trade up for him.
Kodathor nailed it in one mock, vaulting up to third place. There’s still a significant gap trailing Reeuban, but he is starting to sweat, after having not nailed a pick since those early trades.
25. Obi Melifonwu, S UConn
I guarantee you, Pete Carroll is pissed. By now we’ve all seen that gif of Carroll reacting to Melifonwu’s 40 time. You could almost hear him saying, “Well, we’ll have to trade up if we want him now.” And while the Hawks were close to getting the athletic marvel, they did, in fact, miss out on him. The Texans are difficult to predict, because outside of QB their needs are hard to identify. This is why Obi is the perfect prospect for them. He is so talented, and has such positional versatility, he can be whatever they discover they need as the season wears on. Press corner? You got him. Slot defender? Sure thing. Strong safety? Sign me up.
The Texans break a lot of mock drafters’ hearts by passing on DeShone Kizer here. His stock has suffered so thoroughly since the combine, I doubt he remains in many first round mocks for much longer.
26. Kevin King, CB Washington
Everyone in Hawk Nation is going to look at this and yawn. They’ve listened to Rob Staton- they know all about King. I’m sorry to bore you, but it just makes sense! With Sidney Jones going down, the top of the CB market has thinned out some, and grabbing an athlete of King’s caliber, who has been put through the fire like King has, is a gift. He is the prototypical fit to their physical profile, and plays with the kind of edge that Seattle loves to see in all its defensive players. Yes, the Hawks have greater needs, specifically at offensive line, but Cam Robinson is not their guy, and they’ve never been afraid to go out and get someone that fits who they are. King is who they are.
So few people picking Kevin King to the Hawks? What, does nobody follow seahawksdraftblog? Nobody in the top-20 got King to the Hawks, but it will happen much more on mock sites in the future.
27. Dalvin Cook, RB Florida State
How far can I really drop Cook for that combine performance? In case you haven’t heard, Dalvin Cook, possibly the most explosive playmaker in all of college football last season, tested as a 9th percentile SPARQ athlete. You read that right. 9th percentile. For reference, Eddie Lacy tested in the 39th percentile and Karlos “pregnant” Williams tested in the 25th percentile. Dalvin freaking Cook was in the 9th. But! It might have just been one bad day. That’s what the Chiefs have to hope, when they stop Dalvin’s freefall and bring him in as the lightning to Spencer Ware’s thunder.
The two most likely reasons for nobody predicting Cook to the Chiefs are that 1) I am overreacting to the combine hype, or 2) not enough people heard about Dalvin’s combine performance. Guess we’ll see in the next contest… Reeuban holding strong to first place.
28. Mike Williams, WR Clemson
Speaking of stopping a freefall that was caused by a poor showing at the combine, Dallas steps up to the plate and takes a chance on the supposedly sluggish Mike Williams. There is a lot of buzz going around right now that he is the second coming of Laquan Treadwell- a big jump-ball artist who cannot gain any separation from defensive backs, either through athleticism or the intricacies of route running. That remains to be seen. He was still highly productive in college, and fills a hole on the offense across from Dez Bryant. With Dak and Zeke and Dez already in the fold, perhaps a jump-ball artist is all Dallas really needs?
With every major player missing on this pick, there are really only three picks that will allow someone to mount their comeback. The Bears trading up to select Kizer, the Vikings trading up to select Foreman, or the two pick combo of Conley to the Packers and Lawson to the Steelers. Otherwise, this looks like a Reeuban win.
29. Forrest Lamp, G Western Kentucky
This is about as boring as a first round pick can get. I understand your pain, Green Bay fans. Trust me- every time I saw Lamp go to the Hawks at 26, I would cringe and curse. It sucks to take a guard in the first round. But I’m here to tell you to embrace the pick. Lamp tested out as the runaway most athletic lineman in the draft. His tape backs it up. The only knock on him is that he has really short arms, which should limit him to playing guard in the NFL, but he can quickly become on of the best in the league. Green Bay just lost two interior linemen in free agency, so adding Lamp will help maintain stability and should even improve the running game.
With Green Bay opting to build up their line, the only way a player can catch up to snatch first place away from Reeuban is to get a trade right. That means Chicago trading up for Kizer or Minnesota trading up for Foreman.
30. Budda Baker, S Washington
Picking for the Steelers is really difficult this year. I don’t know why, but I am really struggling to find someone who is a value at 30, that fits their team needs, and fits their team identity. This is the first time I feel really confident about that pairing, with Budda Baker. Budda Baker is more football than football. The dude is intense. He is a little undersized for a safety, but he makes up for it in his instincts, his savvy, and most of all, his ferocious edge. He is the defensive version of Doug Baldwin. He had a surprisingly good combine, and should be considered a first round prospect from here on out.
Another pick down, and another miss from most mock drafters. Two more picks with two more chances for a trade… but first place is looking pretty locked up at this point.
31. Jonathan Allen, DE Alabama
Bet you thought I forgot about him, huh? Well, there’s a reason he’s down here in the muck and mire. The dude is barely 22 years old, and he has arthritis in both of his shoulders. This isn’t to say he isn’t a good football player. He is an amazing, dominant football player! But for how long? Arthritis is one of those things that you can’t surgically repair. There’s no recovery from it. It just gets steadily worse with age. And contrary to popular opinion, shoulders are pretty important for interior defensive linemen. So while I think the Falcons will be getting a steal for three or four years, that’s about it. They won’t be able to count on Allen as someone to build their team around. In that way, he’s almost more of an old free agent addition than a rookie draft pick.
And then there was one. One final pick that can undo Reeuban. I’ve already spoiled, early in this article, that this last pick will be a trade. The odds are incredibly low… but are they low enough? Will this final, traded pick send Kizer or Foreman to the NFC North?
32. via Deshaun Watson, QB Clemson
You thought I was done trading, son? Hell no. Not when this supremely obvious pick is just sitting here. Of course some team who hasn’t figured out their QB situation would want to trade back into the round, one spot ahead of Cleveland (who has their own QB situation to figure out) and grab the last of the day 1 prospects. And of course the Saints would like to trade down 2 measly picks, with all this available CB talent, to pick up some more picks. Both teams make out like bandits in this scenario, leaving Cleveland as the only loser. But after the kind of first round the Browns enjoyed, I think they’ll survive missing out on Watson, who falls this far because he tested out as having no velocity on his passes.
*final contest results
And there we have it! Reeuban surfed the typhoon of points he acquired in the first 8 picks, all the way to victory, with 96 points. I think we all learned today that the importance of accurately predicting trades cannot be overstated. Congrats, Reeuban, on a great win. There is $50 coming your way.
You can track changes to my mock draft, as well as other mock drafts from around the web, at WalterFootball’s NFL Mock Draft Database.
photo: Chad Puerling, TexasHSFootball.com